NFL Week 2: Sunday's Best Player Prop Bet Picks | Pickswise
Week 1 is in the books and there was no shortage of storylines. Sadly, we never got to see what the Jets offense would look like with Aaron Rodgers, all 4 MVP favorites lost in Week 1 (Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Herbert), and Baker Mayfield pulled off an upset on the road just like we all expected. We had success in Week 1 and I truly believe lines do not become sharp until weeks 4-5 when books have a slightly larger data set. One of the biggest mistakes you can make is drawing grand conclusions from 1 Game. We will continue to use insight from last year as a guidance and make judgment calls on what our eyes saw last Sunday.
Christian McCaffrey (SF) over 27.5 receiving yards (-110)
Line available on Bet365 at the time of publishing.
McCaffrey did a lot of his damage on the ground in Week 1 with 22 carries for 152 yards against the Steelers. His receiving total of 17 yards was his second lowest total as a member of the 49ers. Against the Rams last year, he went for 7 receptions 89 yards and 8 receptions for 55 yards. This line may be an overreaction to Week 1’s performance, but I can’t see Shanahan rolling into a showdown with McVay repeating the same game plan as the week before. He’s averaging 42 YPG as a member of the 49ers as a receiver and 4 receptions; by all accounts, Week 1 was an outlier. The Rams defense showed up tremendously against the Seahawks last week, but they lacked a pass catching RB to really exploit a weakness of this LA Defense: linebackers. Ernest Jones is a rangy ILB, but being flanked by Christian Rozeboom is a disaster waiting to happen this Sunday. This is 2U play for me and can be played up to 30.5 His alt line of 50+ for +285 holds a lot of value as well.
Baker Mayfield (TB) over 0.5 Interceptions (+100)
Line available on BetMGM at the time of publishing.
Baker looked really good last week against Minnesota who had the highest blitz rate of any team in the NFL by a WIDE margin. He did a great job picking that up and being smart with the Football taking what the defense gave him. Chicago doesn’t blitz. They ranked 28th overall in blitz rate and 24th overall in pressure rate. I’m expecting Baker to sit back and make decisions, getting through his progressions: and this is where problems start. He’s a gun-slinger at heart and will force things that may not be there with too much time on his hands. As a starter, Baker has thrown a pick in 41/70 Games (58%). We are getting 50% implied odds, so some value right out of the Game. The Bears actually did a solid job stifling the run last week, surrendering 2.9 ypc and Baker may have to make some plays this weekend. This train is never late. 1U
James Cook (BUF) over 47.5 rushing yards( -114)
Line available on Fanduel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Cook looked sharp against the best defense in the league at his first time as the lead back. Playing 59% of the snaps for 12 carries, I saw some explosive plays and the ability to get to the edge. The Las Vegas Raiders allowed 4.3 YPC in Week 1 and I can see Cook getting 2-3 more carries this week as they look to limit Allen’s turnovers. This is a game that can also get ugly as the Bills will be reeling and coming back to Buffalo for their home open. I have Cook projected around 54-55 yards this Sunday as he should get closer to his 5.7 ypc from last season. This line is 50.5 on other books so act fast! 1.5U
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